Happy New Year Folks

The end of 2012 has come and I would consider it a real success. I've learnt a lot about how to cope with variance after the first couple of months of bad luck and since November as well whilst retaining a solid income and a good hourly rate. Running bad, whilst it can be relentless, is not personal it's just part of the game despite what some people may claim. Future decisions should not be influenced by previous misfortune. As one's understanding of this grows a more level-headed approach to this form of 'gambling' should follow making decisions based on equities and ranges the primary objective and therefore increasing your hourly rate.

So, I finish the year with 432,000 VPPs having done a lot of trialling of the pace I will need to achieve on a daily basis if I were to try and achieve Supernova Elite towards the end of the year. This is an ambitious goal but if I get ahead of pace early (I'll try and get Supernova by the end of January) then I hope I can retain a good quality of life rather than sweat my way through the later months of the year in an effort to achieve it. The chief concern is that I will not be the only one with this goal, but my hours don't collide heavily with many mass tabling regs which is a bonus.

This will mean I will have to buckle down and possibly make a few social sacrifices but 2013 is the year I've decided to be the year were I put everything into this.

I wish you all a Happy New Year

bigstealer

Risk vs Reward

PokerStars Hand #88240824273: Tournament #634144143, $93.25+$6.75 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/10/26 7:59:51 ET
Table '634144143 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (1640 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1052 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (1982 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1795 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1069 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1462 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 25
Hero: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td 8c]
Player 5: folds
Player 6: folds
Player 1: folds
Player 2: folds
Villain: raises 51 to 101
Hero: calls 51
*** FLOP *** [8d Tc 3d]
Villain: bets 94
Hero: calls 94
*** TURN *** [8d Tc 3d] [4h]
Villain: bets 253
Hero: raises 306 to 559
Villain: raises 1228 to 1787 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1041 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (187) returned to Villain
*** RIVER *** [8d Tc 3d 4h] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [7h 6h] (high card Ten)
Hero: shows [Td 8c] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
Hero collected 3590 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3590 | Rake 0
Board [8d Tc 3d 4h 2d]
Seat 1: Player 1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Player 2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Villain (small blind) showed [7h 6h] and lost with high card Ten
Seat 4: Hero (big blind) showed [Td 8c] and won (3590) with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 5: Player 5 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Player 6 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This hand is a blind on blind encounter in the mid stages of a $100 turbo. Whilst I believe that playing these stakes requires there to be at least a couple of very bad players (and they should be the focus of your exploitation) if you have the opportunity to play in position against an extremely wide range vs any kind of player you should take it with a wide range. Such an opportunity arose in this situation where an extremely aggressive (and sometimes spewy) regular raised from the small blind (something I notice he does 75% of the time having consulted my HUD) with a little over a min raise. Whilst T8o may seem mediocre holdings it is actually a 45% underdog vs the 75% range (assuming you see all 5 postflop cards) according to Pokerstove. So as I'm getting 3 to 1 to call its a no brainer to pay the extra 51 chips to see a flop.

The flop comes a 8 T 3 with 2 diamonds, somewhat of a dream flop for me as its just unconnected enough for me to hardly ever have huge hand but draw heavy enough for me to get value from a huge part of his range whilst I'm almost always ahead . However, at the risk of sounding a little greedy, I want value from ALL of his range. I've also previously mentioned that he is hyper aggressive and sometimes makes ill timed moves which should aid me in my quest to maximize my value. This particular opponent almost always continuation bets the turn as well as flop so whilst taking a risk I flat call his C bet of 94 chips. This call has 3 functions. The first is value. The call is designed to mainly induce a bet from his absolute air ball combinations (Q5o, K2o, 75 of spades to name a few) on the turn that couldn't continue if I raised the flop as he will fire the 2nd barrel again. The 2nd is to under-represent my hand and therefore polarise my range massively when I make my move on my turn (and in turn hopefully induce a 'spew'). The 3rd is to balance my range so that I don't just have floats, draws and 2nd pairs here.

The turn comes an off suit 4 which only improves 44 in terms of hands that weren't beating me that now are. True to form he quickly bets 253 for around 2/3 pot. Here comes my chance to make my move. I raise small to 559 which at this time hugely polarizes my range to 44 and possibly TT (which I'm sure he'd believe I would be inclined to 3 bet preflop) or absolute air. It also leaves just over 1000 chips and the illusion of fold equity. As I tend to make my raises on the flop vs this opponent I was happy to make an uncharacteristic play to hopefully confuse this reg. After a while of thinking the reg decided to shove over the top which I quickly called off and he tabled 76 of hearts (he'd picked up a two way straight draw). I faded the 8 outs and the 18% equity to become the dominant stack of the tournament.

Whilst a few dangerous cards could have come on the turn I've played enough with this player to know that he won't slow down and will go for value quite thin (an important part of being a good aggressive player) so if the 7 of diamonds did come I wouldn't be too concerned about the chance of him shutting down on the turn if he had two Kings here. A few people might think that I need to charge the draws but as draws form such a relatively small part of his range (which involves almost 1000 combinations of cards) and quite a small chance of being completed in the next card I believe the long term benefits of adding a bit of slow play to enable me to play for stacks outweighs the chance of being sucked out on vs his range in this spot.

bigstealer

Thinking Outside the Box

PokerStars Hand #87086455001: Tournament #622969906, $55.56+$4.44 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2012/10/03 12:50:16 WET [2012/10/03 7:50:16 ET]
Table '622969906 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Villain (8525 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 2 (2463 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 3 (1892 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero (620 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 100
Player 2: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td 3c]
Player 3: folds
Hero: raises 300 to 500
Villain: calls 400
Player 2: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd Qs 6s]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
*** TURN *** [Jd Qs 6s] [7h]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
*** RIVER *** [Jd Qs 6s 7h] [7s]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets 120 and is all-in
Villain: folds
Uncalled bet (120) returned to bigstealer
Hero collected 1200 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1200 | Rake 0
Board [Jd Qs 6s 7h 7s]
Seat 2: Villain (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 3: Player 2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Player 3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Hero (button) collected (1200)

This hand is played on the bubble of a $60 9 man sit and go. 9 man is by no means my speciality but when 6 max traffic is slow I mix them in with reasonable success and with more play/studying my ICM and strategy has slowly improved.

In this particular instance I'm left with just over 3bbs having been whittled down over the tournament most likely because I'm a massive fish. I find myself on the button with a rather ugly T3 off suit. As I'm so short I'm almost forced to shove here but as I believe that I have little fold equity so I make it 2.5x the bb in the hope that the sb and bb aren't paying attention and will look at it like a normal raise (this play is effective against multi-tablers who will fold a bad hand here if they are playing too many games). Not only that but if the small blind was to isolate all in and the big blind called I could happily fold and creep into the money.

Unfortunately, in this case I get flat called by our villain in the small blind and the big blind throws his cards in the muck. I see he has a VPIP of 41% and curse at my lack of observation before making my 2.5x 'play'. So, we get to see 3 more cards and I have 120 chips behind. The flop comes 6 Q J with 2 spades and it gets checked to me. It becomes apparent to me that if a someone is fishy enough to have a 41% VPIP they are likely to be a bit of a gambler and just want to see more cards so instead of putting my final 120 chips in on the flop when the action is checked to me I elect to check with the aim of getting to the river in order to try a rather audacious bluff where no more cards will be dealt. What do I have to lose? I check behind and the turn is a blank 7. The action goes check check and the river is a 7 of spades which again our fishy friend checks. We are at the river and the 1st part of my goal has been achieved so I quickly bet my remaining chips all in. He quickly folds despite his outrageous pot odds of around 11 to 1 and I scoop a pot of 1200 plus the 120 I bet.

This kind of play does not need a large success rate to be extremely profitable and with T3o I have more than doubled my stack without actually ever being at risk.

bigstealer

Fancy a little Ace game?

PokerStars Hand #86038254453: Tournament #612902844, $92.60+$7.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2012/09/11 21:46:31 WET [2012/09/11 16:46:31 ET]
Table '612902844 1' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Villain (3771 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1793 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 3 (3436 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 50
Hero: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td Qs]
Player 3: folds
Villain: raises 109 to 209
Hero: calls 109
*** FLOP *** [Tc 3h Ad]
Villain: bets 209
Hero: raises 241 to 450
Villain: raises 3112 to 3562 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1134 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1978) returned to Villain
*** RIVER *** [Tc 3h Ad 3c] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Qc Jh] (a pair of Threes)
Hero: shows [Td Qs] (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Hero collected 3586 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3586 | Rake 0
Board [Tc 3h Ad 3c 4c]
Seat 1: Villain (small blind) showed [Qc Jh] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 4: Hero (big blind) showed [Td Qs] and won (3586) with two pair, Tens and Threes
Seat 5: Player 3 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This hand is played on the bubble of a $100 reg speed 6 max game. The two players are regulars but both have their faults. The Villain in question is extremely aggressive/spewy and does not adjust when players use that aggression against him. On bubbles he seems to make it his sole objective to try and outplay (and failing that gamble with) the players involved regardless of your activity or image. To give you a barometer of his aggression his raise from the small blind % is very close to 90% but when it is 3 handed it is pretty much 100%. That means when you are to his left you can have a lot of fun by widening your calling and 3 betting range accordingly.

In this particular hand the other regular folds the button and our villain makes his obligatory raise to 209 which is essentially a min-raise. Given that he incorporates near enough 100% of his range when he raises in this situation I have 2 options when I look down at QTo. I can re-raise all in (which is likely profitable given that his calling range would have to be astronomically wide to make it break even or worse) or I can choose to flat call and see a flop with a) a hand that plays well and likely dominates his range and b) position for at least the flop. I have tremendous pot odds to go with those other 2 factors so I decide to flat call and stacks are deep enough to allow for maneuverability post flop should I find a suitable spot to make a move.

The flop comes A T 3 rainbow. The Villain goes ahead and continuation bets half pot (which he does 94% of the time). A tricky situation with 2nd pair? The reality of it is that it's not tricky at all. This player loves to try and outplay on bubbles as I mentioned before. He will never give me credit for an ace, as he'd expect me to re-raise preflop given both of our images, so when I raise it small to 450 (leaving ~1000 behind giving the illusion of fold equity) I expect him to continue with his entire range such is his nature whether he has me beat or not. I'd expect KK-K10 to flat call here in which case I shut down. As all aces (A2-AK), AA, TT and T3o accounts for 16% of his range it is hugely profitable to make a raise here with the intention of calling off his inevitable flop 3 bet. In fact, a 3 bet all in may be weaker still as he may choose to flat call his strongest hands (AA, TT, AK, AT) in the hope I'd continue what he perceives to be a bluff. Anyway, as predicted, our villain snap shoves all in and turns over QJo giving him a gutshot and an overcard to my pair of tens. I fade the 27% equity he has in the hand (rather more than I expected/hoped) and get to work on making use of my increased chip stack which has been kindly handed to me.

bigstealer

Not on this Board!

PokerStars Hand #83776863314: Tournament #591621017, $27.58+$2.42 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/07/24 13:49:19 WET [2012/07/24 8:49:19 ET]
Table '591621017 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (960 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (4276 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (2169 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 4 (1595 in chips) is sitting out
Hero: posts small blind 25
Villain: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad Qs]
Player 1: folds
Villain: raises 50 to 100
Hero: raises 200 to 300
Player 4: folds
Hero: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2h Kc]
Hero: bets 260
Villain: calls 260
*** TURN *** [Kd 2h Kc] [7d]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 360
Hero: calls 360
*** RIVER *** [Kd 2h Kc 7d] [8s]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 1150
Hero: calls 1150
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Ts Jh] (a pair of Kings)
Hero: shows [Ad Qs] (a pair of Kings - Ace kicker)
Hero collected 4190 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4190 | Rake 0
Board [Kd 2h Kc 7d 8s]
Seat 1: Player 1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Villain (button) showed [Ts Jh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: Hero (small blind) showed [Ad Qs] and won (4190) with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: Player 4 (big blind) folded before Flop

The hand I will talk about is from a $30 6 max turbo Sit and Go played earlier today. The hand is played against a fellow regular player who isn't folding's number 1 fan and certainly has been known to throw a few bluffs into the mix. Although I don't know him, my feeling is that he tends to get emotionally involved in the game and will often try and outplay players who he feels are getting after him and I've witnessed him spewing his chip stack away as a result. This means that, whilst in most cases game flow can be overvalued (as many pros play lots of tables), it is definitely a consideration when playing a player of this nature.

So, I find myself in the small blind with an unsuited Ace Queen and with Player 1 folding his hand it is left to our Villain to act. He is an observant player and is likely to have noticed that Player 4 in the big blind is sitting out. *Free Equity* I hear you whisper. Subsequently, I can safely assume that his button raise is likely to include a wide range of hands. When he does min raise I feel I'm left with little choice but to 3 bet, both for information and for value. A quick peak at my HUD says that the villain folds 50% of the time that he's 3 bet and only 4 bets 8% of the time. I 3 bet here with the intention of folding vs this opponent's 4 bet as his range is simply too strong against my holdings. However, some of you may think its a bad decision to reraise when 42% of the time I'm going to be left out of position in a bloated pot. This is the case a lot of the time but my hand is too strong to simply flat call and check fold a low flop when my opponent is relatively loose. It is important to maximise value with a hand especially if it dominates his range like it will if he flat calls.

I 3 bet to 300 and true to form he doesn't release and we see a flop. I expect him to have a wide range of hands here as he enjoys using position and he himself probably thinks I would resteal wide having seen Player 4's absence from the game also. The flop comes down Kd 2h Kc. This is a great flop for my hand. It is unlikely to have helped him and may also encourage a player that likes to use position to steal pots to stick around a little longer with weaker holdings gaining yet more value for my Ace high. I bet a little under half the pot for protection and value. I will still get called by small, medium and possibly even slow played big pairs, three of a kind (which realistically will be KT, KJ and KQ) as well as a tonne of floats with the intention of bluffing me later in the hand.

The turn is the 7 of diamonds changing very little improving 77 to a full house. I check with the intention of calling one street realistically to see what he'll do on the river. He quickly bets well under half the pot which conceivably he could do with all his range (a big/medium/small pair trying to reach cheap showdown, a King and all his bluffs) but I feel he's more likely to check back the pairs in his range hoping to get to showdown...and so the polarizing of his range begins. Given that three of a kind and full houses form such a small part of his range I elect to call and see what the river brings.

The river is the 8 of spades which is a bit of a brick improving 88 to a full house. I check and he instantly bets around 2/3 pot which was almost all my stack. Given the magnitude of this hand (in terms of how dominant the winner of this pot would be for the remainder of the tournament), the strength of the hand he is trying to represent and the size of the pot, the speed of this large bet didn't make any sense to me whatsoever. I expected most small/medium pairs to check back instantly (as the function his turn bet in this case was to get to showdown cheaply) and for a AA/QQ/KK/KT/KJ/KQ/77/88 hand have a little more time working out a good bet size for value. I tend to be careful regarding time-tells as good players will use them against you but on this particular occasion it made a lot of sense to take it into consideration. With pot odds of 2.6:1 I needed to be right around 30% of the time. With the texture of the flop, bet sizing and bet speed, I expected his polarized range to be heavily weighted towards bluffs. Subsequently, I took very little time in making the call. I was relieved and pleased to see he had JTos.

bigstealer

Heads Up Madness?

PokerStars Hand #78488992786: Tournament #543713965, $92.60+$7.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2012/04/07 19:48:53 WET [2012/04/07 14:48:53 ET]
Table '543713965 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (3371 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (5629 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 75
Hero: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to  Hero  [4s Kc]
Villain: calls 75
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [3h Ac Ah]
Hero: bets 150
Villain: raises 300 to 450
Hero: calls 300
*** TURN *** [3h Ac Ah] [9h]
Hero: checks
Villain: checks
*** RIVER *** [3h Ac Ah 9h] [9s]
Hero: bets 450
Villain: raises 4579 to 5029 and is all-in
Hero: calls 2321 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (2258) returned to Villain
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [5c 7c] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
Hero: shows [4s Kc] (two pair, Aces and Nines - King kicker)
Hero collected 6742 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6742 | Rake 0
Board [3h Ac Ah 9h 9s]
Seat 1: Hero  (big blind) showed [4s Kc] and won (6742) with two pair, Aces and Nines
Seat 3: Villain (button) (small blind) showed [5c 7c] and lost with two pair, Aces and Nines

This hand was played in the closing stages of a $100 6 max tournament versus a very aggressive regular who likes to mix it up both in and out of position usually balancing his bluffs and made hands very well. To say that we know each other's game well is an understatement but don't let yourself be fooled into thinking that this particular hand was a case of psychological warfare.

So, first up the villain limps in on the button which, whilst it could be a trap, is most likely a sign of a weaker hand that he is not willing to raise especially as it is early in the Heads Up situation. I have K4 off suit and, whilst well ahead of his range in this spot, choose to check as I do not want to bloat the pot preflop out of position with a hand that does not flop well.

The flop is A A 3 with a two hearts. It is a very good one for my King high as very few hands have been improved by the Ace paired board and the lowly 3. Subsequently, I bet half the pot both for value from flush draws (not to mention I can expect a lot of floats in his range) and for protection as my hand is very vulnerable and checking would give the villain the opportunity to check behind leaving me guessing on the turn. My bet is instantly raised by the villain and with his aggressive reputation in mind I call as I am so often ahead in this spot. The turn is a nasty card, the 9 of hearts, completing a flush so I check to the aggressor most likely with the intention of folding to a turn bet. The villain checks behind instantly signalling to me that he does not have a flush. However, he is tricky enough to play the flush passively (and stacks are shallow enough for it to be conceivable) so when the board double pairs on the river when the 9 of spades peels, I put out a small bet which has 3 functions. The 1st of which is to get value from any queen high or jack high bluff that he might have thought was no good on the flop but now that my pair of 3s (which I could easily have with the line I've taken) has been counterfeited by the second 9, it may well be the best hand. The 2nd function is to provide a blocker bet for the unlikely event of him having a flush in which case I'd expect a flat call as he really cannot expect much long term value from raising with a flush here and could get levelled into losing his stack if raised again. The 3rd of which is to induce a bluff from a counterfeited 3 that HE may have had or any random unconnected hand with which he may try to bluff with. After I bet the villain takes a couple of seconds before raising all in and with pot odds of 2 to 1 it's a fairly easy snap call (as I only need to be right 33% of the time to show profit and I'd expect him to be bluffing well over half the time here). The villain mucks his hand and after inspecting the hand replayer is found to have a poultry 75 of spades.

bigstealer

Maximizing Value Out of Position

PokerStars Hand #81911003875: Tournament #574130835, $27.58+$2.42 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2012/06/13 20:37:35 WET [2012/06/13 15:37:35 ET]
Table '574130835 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (2336 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (824 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 3 (1600 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1440 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain (1730 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1070 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 15
Villain: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad As]
Player 6: folds
Player 1: folds
Player 2: folds
Player 3: folds
Hero: raises 60 to 90
Villain: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [9s 5h 8c]
Hero: bets 100
Villain: raises 100 to 200
Hero: calls 100
*** TURN *** [9s 5h 8c] [3d]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 120
Hero: calls 120
*** RIVER *** [9s 5h 8c 3d] [Th]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 90
Hero: raises 390 to 480
Villain: calls 390
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Ad As] (a pair of Aces)
Villain: mucks hand [9d Jc]
Hero collected 1780 from pot


This hand is played against a tricky regular opponent who likes to see a lot of flops both in and out of position. This particular time I'm in the worst possible place to be playing a player of this nature, the small blind which will lead to me playing all postflop streets out of position therefore meaning I will be acting first and therefore have less information to work with. To top this off he very rarely folds flops which, whilst it means getting value for strong made hands on flops, it makes for trickier decisions for more marginal hands or indeed maximizing value from the aforementioned strong hands as you are unable to define a players range with ease. So, in this particular occasion I took an unusual line with a strong hand in order to maximize value.

So, I'm in the small blind and the action is folded round to me and I have the absolute best hand possible and as this is a blind defending regular I make it the full 3 times the big blind confident that I will be called a large percentage of the time. The villain plays to the script and invests the extra 60 chips required to see the flop. The flop comes a rather wet board with a possible straight out there and a reasonable amount of 2 pairs are faesable too but there are also copius amounts of draws and 1 pair hands that I will be looking to extract value from(as well as a few floats from overcards etc) so I bet 100 into a pot of 180 and I immediately get raised. I'm not particularly surprised or concerned by this as I know he was unlikely to fold, especially on a board like this. But what does he have? It's easy to think he could have top pair but the number of 9s in his range vs the amount of times he could bluff or have me beat here is rather small. That combined with the fact that he's a regular and is good enough to throw away 1 pair to a shove all in here means I elect to call and let him continue his story as I know he's not one to turn down the chance to bluff despite the vulnerability of my hand. The turn is a beautiful 3 of diamonds completing the rainbow board so no flushes are possible. I continue my passive line and check call the Villains rather small bet of 120 chips. The river is the 10 of hearts which only improves a couple of hands that I was ahead of (9T with an outside shot of QJ as his flop raise doesn't make sense) that took this line. This could possibly be a spot to value bet but would chase away the bluffs from before (a series of gutshot straight draws and small pairs he'd turn into a bluff...this boy loves to bluff) so I check. The Villain bets a minute 90 chips into a pot of 910. This is clearly a value bet looking for value from an A8, 77, 66...but to name a few hands. So, the tricky reg has finally defined his range for me to either a weak 10 (possibly J10) or some sort of 9 that wasnt helped by the river. As my line is so passive this is a fantastic spot to polarise MY range by making an unorthodox play to maximize the value of my hand. I check-raise the river to 480 representing a very strong hand like QJ making a straight on the river, or a stone cold bluff. Giving him pot odds of almost 5 to 1 he instantly calls and shows 2nd pair with J9 off suit.

Against a more straight forward player, raising the flop to 600 would almost always be the best move. However, with a player who has a combination of low fold % and a high propensity to bluff, it is important to let them define their range for you especially with very strong hands so you can maximize your value.

bigstealer

April and May 2012

So, the end of May has come and summer has arrived. With my Pokerstars account being frozen in mid April and only getting reopened in the 2nd week of May, I've only been playing for just under 3 weeks on Stars. However, I broke even on iPoker with significant amounts of rakeback making my stint on there worthwhile. As I returned to Stars I decided to try out a new piece of software called Table of Interest allowing me to play more tables more efficiently my compartmentalising the tables to different parts of my screen for me. This has allowed me to play up to 18 tables at a time whilst retaining the ability to make good decisions without missing the intricate spots that typical mass tabling regs tend to get exploited in. Consequently, I have increased my volume and my daily VPPs have increased to almost double my previous daily rate which obviously boosts my rakeback on Pokerstars too. I have made a decision to play fewer MTTs but have still hit 3 final tables in the last 2 weeks despite only playing 1 or 2 a day. I have been running a bit better in general but not as well in the high stakes games ($200-$500 games) resulting in this last week being break even despite my 'In the Money' percentage increasing greatly. I do enjoy the flexibility that reducing the number of MTTs brings me. It also gives me a good idea about whether going for Supernova Elite in 2013 would be achievable/worth the commitment. Obviously the commitment to it would be significant (40+ hours a week as opposed to the 25-30 I'm used to) but whilst it has been fun lying in til whenever I want I think the time has come to work hard with an aim to save some money up for some long term stability (so wise....).

I'm thinking this blog will also become a port for interesting hands I've experienced much like md261 and Pezrez's blog but I'm yet to really decide on that.

I will update this again soon once I've decided upon putting certain hands here.

bigstealer

March and 1st half of April 2012

This post is a little late due to the hectic nature of the 1st week of April which includes my birthday.

Anyway, March was a successful month, I retained Supernova as well as got into the black for the year cancelling out my downswing completely. I hit 7 or 8 final tables and finally hit a big score when I came 3rd out of 4000 players in the Big 22 on April 9th/10th. Admittedly I was kinda running in God-mode getting lucky over and over but I feel after the shower of crap I've been in for the last 3 months that it was deserved. This is a massive lift and has left me feeling more positive about everything. I have felt I was due for a while but I still hope this is the start rather than the end as I have been playing excellently especially in my MTTs picking my spots well but ultimately not winning the crucial 50 50 situations.

But with good news comes the bad news that followed the day after my most successful day in my short poker career. On April 10th, my Pokerstars account got frozen by the site. This is due to an investigation into my account involving my trip to the US around and after Black Friday when the FBI seized Pokerstars, Fulltilt and the Cereus Network thus making online poker (for the most part) illegal for US based players. I've been very cooperative with Pokerstars and hope the matter is resolved soon but am being careful what I say about the matter until a decision has been made. Obviously, I hope a positive outcome can come of this as there is a significant amount of money on the account that could be confiscated if Pokerstars see fit.

In the meantime I've been playing on the myBet skin of iPoker under the screen name 'MaxRoflz'. Its amazing the difference in standard of players. Most regs on the site have little to no finesse moves, no concept of ICM and its rare to find a high stakes reg with an ROI of over -1%. Essentially, they are very exploitable (giving me very little need to table select and with me getting 50% rakeback, that is awesome). I find myself usually with stats of 33/30 by the end of each sit and go. Needless to say the MTTs aren't too tough as well although occasionally you find a bunch of good regs.

So, whilst I feel positive about my game, I hope I wont have to grind iPoker for much longer. It's nice to be over that swing I hope I dont have anything like it again, although inevitably when variance hits you negatively, you just have to keep your head and plough through.

bigstealer

February 2012

Well what a month it has been, and not in the good way...it is safe to say that February has tested me to the very limit several times as it just seemed to get worse and worse with the brutality of misfortune being utterly relentless. Pre-rakeback my downswing extended to almost $18,000 which is 3 times the size of my biggest downswing before then. However, with rakeback (around $7,000) the amount is reduced significantly to just over $10k. Most of the misfortune seems to have been more focused in MTTs although I managed to go on a 3,500 game losing streak in sit and gos too which according to Noah Stephen-Davidowitz, (who did extensive research on the % chance of success/loss playing sit and gos for a living and posted it in a blog-http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/stt-pro/), there was less than a 0.5% chance of a player with my Return On Investment (ROI) going on a downward streak like that. That combined with my MTTs misfortune (which is more common due to the higher variance (Noah writes about MTT variance too -http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/02/mtt_pros_2/ and my ROI for those of you who are interested is just under 50% despite sharkscope saying 112% which stemmed mainly from me doing well a few years back in micro tournaments)) made life pretty tough. 

To combat this I've tried to put as much volume in as I can usually making around 9,000VPPs a week which would come from around 5 weekdays of play. Subsequently it is now March 7th and I have 80k VPPs so I should make the 100k mark this month retaining Supernova a full 5 months before I did last year. This puts me firmly on pace for my new goal of 420k VPPs which would include six $4,000 FPP bonuses as well as the 4 milestone bonuses which provides a healthy year from rakeback alone (assuming I don't lose it all at the tables). Anyway, if I hadn't increased my volume I'd probably be boring you about run bad in my next blog post too.

So, that was pretty draining but over the last 3 days things have picked up a fair bit gaining my 1st significant top 3 finish this year and running better in the sit and gos. Subsequently I'm feeling a bit better about myself but also cautious because although I feel I'm due a big upswing ($50k would be nice :-D) I know it isn't my right to have one. Because of this swing I've had to postpone my goals for now and once I get back towards the black for the year I will return to playing live cash as well as looking into my trip to Dublin. One thing I will say is that when things got really tough for me, and I was at breaking point a few times, I did complain on occasion. I think it's natural but I guess it was a little ill disciplined. However, I didn't complain before I crossed the $11k mark so there's positives to be taken from that too. I hope I never have to go through anything like this again, I have re-evaluated which tournaments I should and do play and limit the amount of money I invest in MTTs per day just so I know what I can expect to lose from them etc in a future bad run.

I spoke to a Russian player who's screen name is Kedrila, who had a similar run to me, he said the key was to continue to play with confidence something that I used to struggle with on occasion in the past but lately not so much. He has made $30k pre-rakeback since then and is a good role model for me to follow not only because he's an excellent player but his behaviour at the table is impressive too.

I'm on 4 leaderboards for the year despite this swing which is encouraging so with hard work, plenty of volume and a little luck I hope to report on a successful March.

Take care and good luck

bigstealer

January 2012

So the end of January has come and as I've had my biggest downswing in my life you'd think I'd want to forget this month. However, I think I've learnt a lot from it. It has taught me to review my play more and evaluate how I could have played certain situations better and if I feel I've played optimally, then it is important to remain confident which can drain away after a while.
This month I've made 32k VPPs so my volume has been good and puts me well on course for around $30k of rakeback for the year which would be an excellent basic 'salary' so to speak which doesn't take into consideration the money that should and could be made at the tables. My swing has generally been down to very poor card distribution mainly giving me holdings that are good but not quite as good as my opponents making it difficult because the optimal (and percentage play) has often been crushed by their hand. Nevertheless, as I posted before I continue to make deep runs in MTTs but just cannot catch a break late on with countless top 50 bust outs, several bust outs in the top 20 and usually the 1st person to bust on a final table mean I'm not quite making the top 3 where the real money is at.
I feel I'm on the cusp of a turnaround, but I don't like to tempt fate. My game is solid, I've reviewed my play and I feel I'm playing players as well as I have in a long time. I think it will take a very small change in fortune to see some drastic results, looking at my play and results this month.
Due to this swing, I've stayed away from playing live cash as I know the variance there is higher. This is disappointing as far as my goals are concerned but once I put some more money in the bank I'll be sure to get back into that as the profitability of the games in Empire is enormous.
I think I've been professional about all of this too. Whilst I've been tempted to just sack off 'work' I figured it important to put in the volume so that the variance evens out quickly. Admittedly there have been occasions where I've uttered a word here or there but on the whole I'm quite pleased with my demeanour at the tables.

Times like these are the toughest part of being a pro. Like the saying goes 'it's a tough way to make an easy living' contrary to people's belief that it's just a life of dossing around 12 months of the year. There's a reason they call it a grind and when you play as regularly as I and many others do it can become tedious like many other office jobs.

Hopefully I can move on in the next few weeks and really kick start my 2012.

bigstealer

A frustrating first week of 2012

Well, this week has certainly been frustrating and achieving goal 5 has been especially challenging in some circumstances but for the main part I cannot complain too much as its part of poker and I know that's just how it is, especially considering I had a very good 6 week spell through the end of October, November and beginning of December. I'm aware I've made mistakes during this week but something that will always bug you in poker is when you make the percentage play and you run into the top of that player's range costing you your tournament life. I've become very acquainted with a lot of relatively loose players top few % of hands this week whilst my MTT luck doesn't seem to have changed. However, I am still making some decent runs in the tournaments I enter and just need a hint of luck in the later stages of the tournaments to really nail some decent money. In sit and gos I've been breaking even for around 2000 games so I'd hope I catch a bit of heater soon. If not then I will plough on through with the volume as I'm close to the next $4k bonus which I should unlock in the first couple of days of next week. That will be very welcome and should allow me to upgrade my set up (laptop with two 21inch screens) which I'm finding very frustrating (lags when it gets to 12 tables).

So, regarding my goals, in terms of taking it seriously I feel I've done that in the sense that my volume has been good. I've not been fooling around during the day time and been up really late doing nothing. I played 415 games this week in 39.2 hours and amassed 10k VPPs which is a really good rate for someone who's average buy in is just over $52 and made 10k VPPs in the entirety of January last year. This puts me well ahead of schedule for my (quite low) goal of 300k VPPs but obviously one week isn't a good barometer on which to say I'm 'on pace' for anything. It's quite funny to think that in 2009 I made 64k VPPs in the entire year.

My MTT volume has been okay with 46 games completed around my sit and gos. This is compared to the 25-30 a week I used to do so if I keep that rate I should play ~2000 mtts this year and I'd make a low expectation to final table around 5% of those. 100 final tables would, could and should produce some decent results for 2012 IF I maintain this volume.

Regarding goal 3 I played my first bout of live cash in London on Thursday and as predicted the players sucked. Luckily there was only one decent player there and he was to my right so I didn't have to worry too much about how I acted and for the main part stayed out of his way. He final tabled a UKIPT last year so it was interesting to talk to him about that and it's likely I will bump into him in Dublin or Newcastle depending on when I set aside enough money for the buy in. As for the live poker itself it started a bit ropey as I was stuck about 150 playing 1,2 having tried to bluff a guy who played a baby flush very passively. At the time I thought he played it well to induce the bluff but it turned out that he was just a very passive player and didn't ever bet and people didn't give him action after that. Anyway, I clawed it back and ended up up 240, not bad for 4 hours 'work'. This was a cool experience and I'll return for sure next Wed as I'm meeting a friend in central London that day.

I feel this week has been balanced well, I've seen plenty of friends, been out, exercised and actually had a really good week outside of poker. I am glad I set these goals as I can easily and seamlessly move out from a horrible session of bad beats and coolers into doing something else without letting it get to me. Only once during the week did I feel like I was tilting which obviously was a sign to stop because when I'm not on my game I'm such a terrible player.

So, in terms of poker that is a week I'm quite glad to see the back of it. My EV (expected value) wasn't high, due to high proportion of big hands I ran into, and my profit was lower still. However, overall, I quite liked how it went. Poker ebbs and flows, but life is too short not to enjoy it in the meantime.

Finally, a big good luck to my friend Chauncey Monk who's playing the main event of the Pokerstars Caribbean Adventure as I write this.

Take care and good luck

bigstealer

2012 Goals

Happy New Year, I hope 2011 was kind to you.

Moving swiftly on, this post is being written by a hungover bigstealer trying to work out his goals for the year. Subsequently, this may not be the final edition of this but a few things spring to mind.

1. Take it seriously - I aim to put in at least 30-35 hours of online poker per week. There will be weeks where I do not attain this as I do plan on occasionally having time off with the prospect of specific events, holidays and festivals etc. Anyway, 2011 was a fairly good year volume wise, with just over 10,000 games played, but I was travelling for 3 months and my volume pre-September sucked (as I rarely played more than 8 tables before then) so I think I should attain 300k VPPs. 2011 brought $12k in rakeback with 235k VPPs so 300k VPPs would equate to around $20k from rakeback. So, 2012 - time to get serious.

2. Improve MTT volume - I did mention in the previous post that I may increase MTTs played but I've decided that whilst the focus will remain on Sit 'n' Gos there is simply too much money to be made in MTTs. I may well avoid the Sunday Majors because the variance of the big buy ins is ridiculous (currently my MTT top buy in is $162) so my focus will remain on the mid stakes MTTs during the week. However, regarding the  Sunday Majors, I could change my stance. If I have a repeat of 2011's income from MTTs(~$30k), I'll be happy but obviously I believe there is more to be made from that.

3. Play Live once a week - I think it is important to break up the grind where you can, but where I live (Fulham, London) there is the Empire Casino less than half an hour away on the Underground. To say the games/players here are bad is a gross understatement. I'm sure it isn't exclusive to London as when I've played live before (in LA and Vegas) it was like playing on a table of 8 Monk532s all at once...it was just that good. Anyway, I hope this will improve my live game too as this links in well to my 4th goal.

4. Play a UKIPT - I don't care which one specifically. I think it'd be a great experience but it would most likely be one towards the end of the year as I'll have set aside money for it. Having said that, I'd love to go to Dublin in May so that could be the specific goal but if not, Newcastle would be good fun too as I have friends who are up there. Obviously if I do well there it'd be fantastic for my reputation but it's not something I'm pinning my hopes on. Although the softness of the fields make it +EV for me to enter, the key is enjoying it there and playing my best. This will be one of the weeks where goal #1 will likely not be achievable.

5. Don't spew in the chatbox - sometimes it's incredibly hard to contain your frustrations at a table when things aren't going your way, but telling someone they're shit when they've made a mistake that you didn't profit from, is quite close to the most stupid thing a player can do. Added to that, I can't think of one poker player who enjoys listening/reading about how bad someone is running or specific hand histories about bad luck. So, whilst I've not been perfect in this particular part of poker, a lot of reputation in poker comes from being a decent bloke/girl, as well as a good player and whilst my game has its faults and is likely never to be perfect, good behaviour at the tables is something that doesn't require much effort to achieve. This isn't just a goal, but also (I hope) good reasoning that might encourage other players who read this and like to use the chatbox to pipe down a bit too. I don't mind talking and joking, but this links with goal #1 - if I'm going to take this seriously this should be part of it.

6. Balance - I stole this goal from bigbluffzinc, but I'm sure he won't mind. Poker can be stressful, frustrating, a grind etc but those times are grossly outweighed by the quality of life you can attain. Those regs who grind 12-14 hours a day every day(including weekends), in my opinion, really are not getting the most out of what poker offers you - the chance to make more than your fair share on fewer, more flexible hours, than in almost any other niche. So whilst I've mentioned improving volume, exercising around 5 times a week is very important to me for example, and balancing work and play is key. So, whilst obviously you want to make a decent living, happiness should be your primary goal...and for me a balanced life will achieve that.

Ok, 2012 has begun-the working week begins tomorrow. Take care and good luck.

bigstealer