The Home Straight

It's been a while writing this thing but trying to balance work and play has been very preoccupying!

The road on my first attempt to get Supernova Elite has predictably been a long one but I think through strict scheduling I've allowed myself the best opportunity to a) achieve the 1 million VPPs this year and b) enjoy my life outside of poker. I'm currently at 795k VPPs with 9 weeks left. I'm not one to be results based but the year has been good, so far, pre rakeback and with every step towards the shiny black stars that come with the SNE VIP status, more hard earned rakeback comes to the fore. As well as this I've travelled abroad 4 times this year, so I think I've balanced my work and play quite well all things considered despite the demands of the aforementioned chase.

I will always preach that poker allows you to have more free time and flexibility than most so as soon as you feel like every waking minute is spent in front of a computer screen there has to be a point where your quality of life is being reduced.

So I write this now having returned from my final holiday of the year spent with my girlfriend in Gran Canaria for a week. It was a fantastic trip and the perfect setting for a bit of relaxation before pushing hard until Christmas. Here is a picture of our favourite spot at the hotel we stayed at:

This was exactly what I needed as I've returned refreshed and determined to achieve what I set out to do on January 1st-achieve Supernova Elite. I know have to be very disciplined and work hard until that 1 million mark.

Anyway, this was only supposed to be a small post. I will keep you posted on my progress both here and on my twitter:
www.twitter.com/bigstealer

bigstealer

Happy New Year Folks

The end of 2012 has come and I would consider it a real success. I've learnt a lot about how to cope with variance after the first couple of months of bad luck and since November as well whilst retaining a solid income and a good hourly rate. Running bad, whilst it can be relentless, is not personal it's just part of the game despite what some people may claim. Future decisions should not be influenced by previous misfortune. As one's understanding of this grows a more level-headed approach to this form of 'gambling' should follow making decisions based on equities and ranges the primary objective and therefore increasing your hourly rate.

So, I finish the year with 432,000 VPPs having done a lot of trialling of the pace I will need to achieve on a daily basis if I were to try and achieve Supernova Elite towards the end of the year. This is an ambitious goal but if I get ahead of pace early (I'll try and get Supernova by the end of January) then I hope I can retain a good quality of life rather than sweat my way through the later months of the year in an effort to achieve it. The chief concern is that I will not be the only one with this goal, but my hours don't collide heavily with many mass tabling regs which is a bonus.

This will mean I will have to buckle down and possibly make a few social sacrifices but 2013 is the year I've decided to be the year were I put everything into this.

I wish you all a Happy New Year

bigstealer

Risk vs Reward

PokerStars Hand #88240824273: Tournament #634144143, $93.25+$6.75 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/10/26 7:59:51 ET
Table '634144143 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (1640 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1052 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (1982 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1795 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1069 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1462 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 25
Hero: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td 8c]
Player 5: folds
Player 6: folds
Player 1: folds
Player 2: folds
Villain: raises 51 to 101
Hero: calls 51
*** FLOP *** [8d Tc 3d]
Villain: bets 94
Hero: calls 94
*** TURN *** [8d Tc 3d] [4h]
Villain: bets 253
Hero: raises 306 to 559
Villain: raises 1228 to 1787 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1041 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (187) returned to Villain
*** RIVER *** [8d Tc 3d 4h] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [7h 6h] (high card Ten)
Hero: shows [Td 8c] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
Hero collected 3590 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3590 | Rake 0
Board [8d Tc 3d 4h 2d]
Seat 1: Player 1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Player 2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Villain (small blind) showed [7h 6h] and lost with high card Ten
Seat 4: Hero (big blind) showed [Td 8c] and won (3590) with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 5: Player 5 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Player 6 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This hand is a blind on blind encounter in the mid stages of a $100 turbo. Whilst I believe that playing these stakes requires there to be at least a couple of very bad players (and they should be the focus of your exploitation) if you have the opportunity to play in position against an extremely wide range vs any kind of player you should take it with a wide range. Such an opportunity arose in this situation where an extremely aggressive (and sometimes spewy) regular raised from the small blind (something I notice he does 75% of the time having consulted my HUD) with a little over a min raise. Whilst T8o may seem mediocre holdings it is actually a 45% underdog vs the 75% range (assuming you see all 5 postflop cards) according to Pokerstove. So as I'm getting 3 to 1 to call its a no brainer to pay the extra 51 chips to see a flop.

The flop comes a 8 T 3 with 2 diamonds, somewhat of a dream flop for me as its just unconnected enough for me to hardly ever have huge hand but draw heavy enough for me to get value from a huge part of his range whilst I'm almost always ahead . However, at the risk of sounding a little greedy, I want value from ALL of his range. I've also previously mentioned that he is hyper aggressive and sometimes makes ill timed moves which should aid me in my quest to maximize my value. This particular opponent almost always continuation bets the turn as well as flop so whilst taking a risk I flat call his C bet of 94 chips. This call has 3 functions. The first is value. The call is designed to mainly induce a bet from his absolute air ball combinations (Q5o, K2o, 75 of spades to name a few) on the turn that couldn't continue if I raised the flop as he will fire the 2nd barrel again. The 2nd is to under-represent my hand and therefore polarise my range massively when I make my move on my turn (and in turn hopefully induce a 'spew'). The 3rd is to balance my range so that I don't just have floats, draws and 2nd pairs here.

The turn comes an off suit 4 which only improves 44 in terms of hands that weren't beating me that now are. True to form he quickly bets 253 for around 2/3 pot. Here comes my chance to make my move. I raise small to 559 which at this time hugely polarizes my range to 44 and possibly TT (which I'm sure he'd believe I would be inclined to 3 bet preflop) or absolute air. It also leaves just over 1000 chips and the illusion of fold equity. As I tend to make my raises on the flop vs this opponent I was happy to make an uncharacteristic play to hopefully confuse this reg. After a while of thinking the reg decided to shove over the top which I quickly called off and he tabled 76 of hearts (he'd picked up a two way straight draw). I faded the 8 outs and the 18% equity to become the dominant stack of the tournament.

Whilst a few dangerous cards could have come on the turn I've played enough with this player to know that he won't slow down and will go for value quite thin (an important part of being a good aggressive player) so if the 7 of diamonds did come I wouldn't be too concerned about the chance of him shutting down on the turn if he had two Kings here. A few people might think that I need to charge the draws but as draws form such a relatively small part of his range (which involves almost 1000 combinations of cards) and quite a small chance of being completed in the next card I believe the long term benefits of adding a bit of slow play to enable me to play for stacks outweighs the chance of being sucked out on vs his range in this spot.

bigstealer

Thinking Outside the Box

PokerStars Hand #87086455001: Tournament #622969906, $55.56+$4.44 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2012/10/03 12:50:16 WET [2012/10/03 7:50:16 ET]
Table '622969906 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Villain (8525 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 2 (2463 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 3 (1892 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero (620 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 100
Player 2: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td 3c]
Player 3: folds
Hero: raises 300 to 500
Villain: calls 400
Player 2: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd Qs 6s]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
*** TURN *** [Jd Qs 6s] [7h]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
*** RIVER *** [Jd Qs 6s 7h] [7s]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets 120 and is all-in
Villain: folds
Uncalled bet (120) returned to bigstealer
Hero collected 1200 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1200 | Rake 0
Board [Jd Qs 6s 7h 7s]
Seat 2: Villain (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 3: Player 2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Player 3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Hero (button) collected (1200)

This hand is played on the bubble of a $60 9 man sit and go. 9 man is by no means my speciality but when 6 max traffic is slow I mix them in with reasonable success and with more play/studying my ICM and strategy has slowly improved.

In this particular instance I'm left with just over 3bbs having been whittled down over the tournament most likely because I'm a massive fish. I find myself on the button with a rather ugly T3 off suit. As I'm so short I'm almost forced to shove here but as I believe that I have little fold equity so I make it 2.5x the bb in the hope that the sb and bb aren't paying attention and will look at it like a normal raise (this play is effective against multi-tablers who will fold a bad hand here if they are playing too many games). Not only that but if the small blind was to isolate all in and the big blind called I could happily fold and creep into the money.

Unfortunately, in this case I get flat called by our villain in the small blind and the big blind throws his cards in the muck. I see he has a VPIP of 41% and curse at my lack of observation before making my 2.5x 'play'. So, we get to see 3 more cards and I have 120 chips behind. The flop comes 6 Q J with 2 spades and it gets checked to me. It becomes apparent to me that if a someone is fishy enough to have a 41% VPIP they are likely to be a bit of a gambler and just want to see more cards so instead of putting my final 120 chips in on the flop when the action is checked to me I elect to check with the aim of getting to the river in order to try a rather audacious bluff where no more cards will be dealt. What do I have to lose? I check behind and the turn is a blank 7. The action goes check check and the river is a 7 of spades which again our fishy friend checks. We are at the river and the 1st part of my goal has been achieved so I quickly bet my remaining chips all in. He quickly folds despite his outrageous pot odds of around 11 to 1 and I scoop a pot of 1200 plus the 120 I bet.

This kind of play does not need a large success rate to be extremely profitable and with T3o I have more than doubled my stack without actually ever being at risk.

bigstealer

Fancy a little Ace game?

PokerStars Hand #86038254453: Tournament #612902844, $92.60+$7.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2012/09/11 21:46:31 WET [2012/09/11 16:46:31 ET]
Table '612902844 1' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Villain (3771 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1793 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 3 (3436 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 50
Hero: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td Qs]
Player 3: folds
Villain: raises 109 to 209
Hero: calls 109
*** FLOP *** [Tc 3h Ad]
Villain: bets 209
Hero: raises 241 to 450
Villain: raises 3112 to 3562 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1134 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1978) returned to Villain
*** RIVER *** [Tc 3h Ad 3c] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Qc Jh] (a pair of Threes)
Hero: shows [Td Qs] (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Hero collected 3586 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3586 | Rake 0
Board [Tc 3h Ad 3c 4c]
Seat 1: Villain (small blind) showed [Qc Jh] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 4: Hero (big blind) showed [Td Qs] and won (3586) with two pair, Tens and Threes
Seat 5: Player 3 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This hand is played on the bubble of a $100 reg speed 6 max game. The two players are regulars but both have their faults. The Villain in question is extremely aggressive/spewy and does not adjust when players use that aggression against him. On bubbles he seems to make it his sole objective to try and outplay (and failing that gamble with) the players involved regardless of your activity or image. To give you a barometer of his aggression his raise from the small blind % is very close to 90% but when it is 3 handed it is pretty much 100%. That means when you are to his left you can have a lot of fun by widening your calling and 3 betting range accordingly.

In this particular hand the other regular folds the button and our villain makes his obligatory raise to 209 which is essentially a min-raise. Given that he incorporates near enough 100% of his range when he raises in this situation I have 2 options when I look down at QTo. I can re-raise all in (which is likely profitable given that his calling range would have to be astronomically wide to make it break even or worse) or I can choose to flat call and see a flop with a) a hand that plays well and likely dominates his range and b) position for at least the flop. I have tremendous pot odds to go with those other 2 factors so I decide to flat call and stacks are deep enough to allow for maneuverability post flop should I find a suitable spot to make a move.

The flop comes A T 3 rainbow. The Villain goes ahead and continuation bets half pot (which he does 94% of the time). A tricky situation with 2nd pair? The reality of it is that it's not tricky at all. This player loves to try and outplay on bubbles as I mentioned before. He will never give me credit for an ace, as he'd expect me to re-raise preflop given both of our images, so when I raise it small to 450 (leaving ~1000 behind giving the illusion of fold equity) I expect him to continue with his entire range such is his nature whether he has me beat or not. I'd expect KK-K10 to flat call here in which case I shut down. As all aces (A2-AK), AA, TT and T3o accounts for 16% of his range it is hugely profitable to make a raise here with the intention of calling off his inevitable flop 3 bet. In fact, a 3 bet all in may be weaker still as he may choose to flat call his strongest hands (AA, TT, AK, AT) in the hope I'd continue what he perceives to be a bluff. Anyway, as predicted, our villain snap shoves all in and turns over QJo giving him a gutshot and an overcard to my pair of tens. I fade the 27% equity he has in the hand (rather more than I expected/hoped) and get to work on making use of my increased chip stack which has been kindly handed to me.

bigstealer

Not on this Board!

PokerStars Hand #83776863314: Tournament #591621017, $27.58+$2.42 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/07/24 13:49:19 WET [2012/07/24 8:49:19 ET]
Table '591621017 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (960 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (4276 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (2169 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 4 (1595 in chips) is sitting out
Hero: posts small blind 25
Villain: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad Qs]
Player 1: folds
Villain: raises 50 to 100
Hero: raises 200 to 300
Player 4: folds
Hero: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2h Kc]
Hero: bets 260
Villain: calls 260
*** TURN *** [Kd 2h Kc] [7d]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 360
Hero: calls 360
*** RIVER *** [Kd 2h Kc 7d] [8s]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 1150
Hero: calls 1150
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Ts Jh] (a pair of Kings)
Hero: shows [Ad Qs] (a pair of Kings - Ace kicker)
Hero collected 4190 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4190 | Rake 0
Board [Kd 2h Kc 7d 8s]
Seat 1: Player 1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Villain (button) showed [Ts Jh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: Hero (small blind) showed [Ad Qs] and won (4190) with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: Player 4 (big blind) folded before Flop

The hand I will talk about is from a $30 6 max turbo Sit and Go played earlier today. The hand is played against a fellow regular player who isn't folding's number 1 fan and certainly has been known to throw a few bluffs into the mix. Although I don't know him, my feeling is that he tends to get emotionally involved in the game and will often try and outplay players who he feels are getting after him and I've witnessed him spewing his chip stack away as a result. This means that, whilst in most cases game flow can be overvalued (as many pros play lots of tables), it is definitely a consideration when playing a player of this nature.

So, I find myself in the small blind with an unsuited Ace Queen and with Player 1 folding his hand it is left to our Villain to act. He is an observant player and is likely to have noticed that Player 4 in the big blind is sitting out. *Free Equity* I hear you whisper. Subsequently, I can safely assume that his button raise is likely to include a wide range of hands. When he does min raise I feel I'm left with little choice but to 3 bet, both for information and for value. A quick peak at my HUD says that the villain folds 50% of the time that he's 3 bet and only 4 bets 8% of the time. I 3 bet here with the intention of folding vs this opponent's 4 bet as his range is simply too strong against my holdings. However, some of you may think its a bad decision to reraise when 42% of the time I'm going to be left out of position in a bloated pot. This is the case a lot of the time but my hand is too strong to simply flat call and check fold a low flop when my opponent is relatively loose. It is important to maximise value with a hand especially if it dominates his range like it will if he flat calls.

I 3 bet to 300 and true to form he doesn't release and we see a flop. I expect him to have a wide range of hands here as he enjoys using position and he himself probably thinks I would resteal wide having seen Player 4's absence from the game also. The flop comes down Kd 2h Kc. This is a great flop for my hand. It is unlikely to have helped him and may also encourage a player that likes to use position to steal pots to stick around a little longer with weaker holdings gaining yet more value for my Ace high. I bet a little under half the pot for protection and value. I will still get called by small, medium and possibly even slow played big pairs, three of a kind (which realistically will be KT, KJ and KQ) as well as a tonne of floats with the intention of bluffing me later in the hand.

The turn is the 7 of diamonds changing very little improving 77 to a full house. I check with the intention of calling one street realistically to see what he'll do on the river. He quickly bets well under half the pot which conceivably he could do with all his range (a big/medium/small pair trying to reach cheap showdown, a King and all his bluffs) but I feel he's more likely to check back the pairs in his range hoping to get to showdown...and so the polarizing of his range begins. Given that three of a kind and full houses form such a small part of his range I elect to call and see what the river brings.

The river is the 8 of spades which is a bit of a brick improving 88 to a full house. I check and he instantly bets around 2/3 pot which was almost all my stack. Given the magnitude of this hand (in terms of how dominant the winner of this pot would be for the remainder of the tournament), the strength of the hand he is trying to represent and the size of the pot, the speed of this large bet didn't make any sense to me whatsoever. I expected most small/medium pairs to check back instantly (as the function his turn bet in this case was to get to showdown cheaply) and for a AA/QQ/KK/KT/KJ/KQ/77/88 hand have a little more time working out a good bet size for value. I tend to be careful regarding time-tells as good players will use them against you but on this particular occasion it made a lot of sense to take it into consideration. With pot odds of 2.6:1 I needed to be right around 30% of the time. With the texture of the flop, bet sizing and bet speed, I expected his polarized range to be heavily weighted towards bluffs. Subsequently, I took very little time in making the call. I was relieved and pleased to see he had JTos.

bigstealer

Heads Up Madness?

PokerStars Hand #78488992786: Tournament #543713965, $92.60+$7.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2012/04/07 19:48:53 WET [2012/04/07 14:48:53 ET]
Table '543713965 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (3371 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (5629 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 75
Hero: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to  Hero  [4s Kc]
Villain: calls 75
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [3h Ac Ah]
Hero: bets 150
Villain: raises 300 to 450
Hero: calls 300
*** TURN *** [3h Ac Ah] [9h]
Hero: checks
Villain: checks
*** RIVER *** [3h Ac Ah 9h] [9s]
Hero: bets 450
Villain: raises 4579 to 5029 and is all-in
Hero: calls 2321 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (2258) returned to Villain
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [5c 7c] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
Hero: shows [4s Kc] (two pair, Aces and Nines - King kicker)
Hero collected 6742 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6742 | Rake 0
Board [3h Ac Ah 9h 9s]
Seat 1: Hero  (big blind) showed [4s Kc] and won (6742) with two pair, Aces and Nines
Seat 3: Villain (button) (small blind) showed [5c 7c] and lost with two pair, Aces and Nines

This hand was played in the closing stages of a $100 6 max tournament versus a very aggressive regular who likes to mix it up both in and out of position usually balancing his bluffs and made hands very well. To say that we know each other's game well is an understatement but don't let yourself be fooled into thinking that this particular hand was a case of psychological warfare.

So, first up the villain limps in on the button which, whilst it could be a trap, is most likely a sign of a weaker hand that he is not willing to raise especially as it is early in the Heads Up situation. I have K4 off suit and, whilst well ahead of his range in this spot, choose to check as I do not want to bloat the pot preflop out of position with a hand that does not flop well.

The flop is A A 3 with a two hearts. It is a very good one for my King high as very few hands have been improved by the Ace paired board and the lowly 3. Subsequently, I bet half the pot both for value from flush draws (not to mention I can expect a lot of floats in his range) and for protection as my hand is very vulnerable and checking would give the villain the opportunity to check behind leaving me guessing on the turn. My bet is instantly raised by the villain and with his aggressive reputation in mind I call as I am so often ahead in this spot. The turn is a nasty card, the 9 of hearts, completing a flush so I check to the aggressor most likely with the intention of folding to a turn bet. The villain checks behind instantly signalling to me that he does not have a flush. However, he is tricky enough to play the flush passively (and stacks are shallow enough for it to be conceivable) so when the board double pairs on the river when the 9 of spades peels, I put out a small bet which has 3 functions. The 1st of which is to get value from any queen high or jack high bluff that he might have thought was no good on the flop but now that my pair of 3s (which I could easily have with the line I've taken) has been counterfeited by the second 9, it may well be the best hand. The 2nd function is to provide a blocker bet for the unlikely event of him having a flush in which case I'd expect a flat call as he really cannot expect much long term value from raising with a flush here and could get levelled into losing his stack if raised again. The 3rd of which is to induce a bluff from a counterfeited 3 that HE may have had or any random unconnected hand with which he may try to bluff with. After I bet the villain takes a couple of seconds before raising all in and with pot odds of 2 to 1 it's a fairly easy snap call (as I only need to be right 33% of the time to show profit and I'd expect him to be bluffing well over half the time here). The villain mucks his hand and after inspecting the hand replayer is found to have a poultry 75 of spades.

bigstealer