February 2012

Well what a month it has been, and not in the good way...it is safe to say that February has tested me to the very limit several times as it just seemed to get worse and worse with the brutality of misfortune being utterly relentless. Pre-rakeback my downswing extended to almost $18,000 which is 3 times the size of my biggest downswing before then. However, with rakeback (around $7,000) the amount is reduced significantly to just over $10k. Most of the misfortune seems to have been more focused in MTTs although I managed to go on a 3,500 game losing streak in sit and gos too which according to Noah Stephen-Davidowitz, (who did extensive research on the % chance of success/loss playing sit and gos for a living and posted it in a blog-http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/stt-pro/), there was less than a 0.5% chance of a player with my Return On Investment (ROI) going on a downward streak like that. That combined with my MTTs misfortune (which is more common due to the higher variance (Noah writes about MTT variance too -http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/02/mtt_pros_2/ and my ROI for those of you who are interested is just under 50% despite sharkscope saying 112% which stemmed mainly from me doing well a few years back in micro tournaments)) made life pretty tough. 

To combat this I've tried to put as much volume in as I can usually making around 9,000VPPs a week which would come from around 5 weekdays of play. Subsequently it is now March 7th and I have 80k VPPs so I should make the 100k mark this month retaining Supernova a full 5 months before I did last year. This puts me firmly on pace for my new goal of 420k VPPs which would include six $4,000 FPP bonuses as well as the 4 milestone bonuses which provides a healthy year from rakeback alone (assuming I don't lose it all at the tables). Anyway, if I hadn't increased my volume I'd probably be boring you about run bad in my next blog post too.

So, that was pretty draining but over the last 3 days things have picked up a fair bit gaining my 1st significant top 3 finish this year and running better in the sit and gos. Subsequently I'm feeling a bit better about myself but also cautious because although I feel I'm due a big upswing ($50k would be nice :-D) I know it isn't my right to have one. Because of this swing I've had to postpone my goals for now and once I get back towards the black for the year I will return to playing live cash as well as looking into my trip to Dublin. One thing I will say is that when things got really tough for me, and I was at breaking point a few times, I did complain on occasion. I think it's natural but I guess it was a little ill disciplined. However, I didn't complain before I crossed the $11k mark so there's positives to be taken from that too. I hope I never have to go through anything like this again, I have re-evaluated which tournaments I should and do play and limit the amount of money I invest in MTTs per day just so I know what I can expect to lose from them etc in a future bad run.

I spoke to a Russian player who's screen name is Kedrila, who had a similar run to me, he said the key was to continue to play with confidence something that I used to struggle with on occasion in the past but lately not so much. He has made $30k pre-rakeback since then and is a good role model for me to follow not only because he's an excellent player but his behaviour at the table is impressive too.

I'm on 4 leaderboards for the year despite this swing which is encouraging so with hard work, plenty of volume and a little luck I hope to report on a successful March.

Take care and good luck

bigstealer

January 2012

So the end of January has come and as I've had my biggest downswing in my life you'd think I'd want to forget this month. However, I think I've learnt a lot from it. It has taught me to review my play more and evaluate how I could have played certain situations better and if I feel I've played optimally, then it is important to remain confident which can drain away after a while.
This month I've made 32k VPPs so my volume has been good and puts me well on course for around $30k of rakeback for the year which would be an excellent basic 'salary' so to speak which doesn't take into consideration the money that should and could be made at the tables. My swing has generally been down to very poor card distribution mainly giving me holdings that are good but not quite as good as my opponents making it difficult because the optimal (and percentage play) has often been crushed by their hand. Nevertheless, as I posted before I continue to make deep runs in MTTs but just cannot catch a break late on with countless top 50 bust outs, several bust outs in the top 20 and usually the 1st person to bust on a final table mean I'm not quite making the top 3 where the real money is at.
I feel I'm on the cusp of a turnaround, but I don't like to tempt fate. My game is solid, I've reviewed my play and I feel I'm playing players as well as I have in a long time. I think it will take a very small change in fortune to see some drastic results, looking at my play and results this month.
Due to this swing, I've stayed away from playing live cash as I know the variance there is higher. This is disappointing as far as my goals are concerned but once I put some more money in the bank I'll be sure to get back into that as the profitability of the games in Empire is enormous.
I think I've been professional about all of this too. Whilst I've been tempted to just sack off 'work' I figured it important to put in the volume so that the variance evens out quickly. Admittedly there have been occasions where I've uttered a word here or there but on the whole I'm quite pleased with my demeanour at the tables.

Times like these are the toughest part of being a pro. Like the saying goes 'it's a tough way to make an easy living' contrary to people's belief that it's just a life of dossing around 12 months of the year. There's a reason they call it a grind and when you play as regularly as I and many others do it can become tedious like many other office jobs.

Hopefully I can move on in the next few weeks and really kick start my 2012.

bigstealer

A frustrating first week of 2012

Well, this week has certainly been frustrating and achieving goal 5 has been especially challenging in some circumstances but for the main part I cannot complain too much as its part of poker and I know that's just how it is, especially considering I had a very good 6 week spell through the end of October, November and beginning of December. I'm aware I've made mistakes during this week but something that will always bug you in poker is when you make the percentage play and you run into the top of that player's range costing you your tournament life. I've become very acquainted with a lot of relatively loose players top few % of hands this week whilst my MTT luck doesn't seem to have changed. However, I am still making some decent runs in the tournaments I enter and just need a hint of luck in the later stages of the tournaments to really nail some decent money. In sit and gos I've been breaking even for around 2000 games so I'd hope I catch a bit of heater soon. If not then I will plough on through with the volume as I'm close to the next $4k bonus which I should unlock in the first couple of days of next week. That will be very welcome and should allow me to upgrade my set up (laptop with two 21inch screens) which I'm finding very frustrating (lags when it gets to 12 tables).

So, regarding my goals, in terms of taking it seriously I feel I've done that in the sense that my volume has been good. I've not been fooling around during the day time and been up really late doing nothing. I played 415 games this week in 39.2 hours and amassed 10k VPPs which is a really good rate for someone who's average buy in is just over $52 and made 10k VPPs in the entirety of January last year. This puts me well ahead of schedule for my (quite low) goal of 300k VPPs but obviously one week isn't a good barometer on which to say I'm 'on pace' for anything. It's quite funny to think that in 2009 I made 64k VPPs in the entire year.

My MTT volume has been okay with 46 games completed around my sit and gos. This is compared to the 25-30 a week I used to do so if I keep that rate I should play ~2000 mtts this year and I'd make a low expectation to final table around 5% of those. 100 final tables would, could and should produce some decent results for 2012 IF I maintain this volume.

Regarding goal 3 I played my first bout of live cash in London on Thursday and as predicted the players sucked. Luckily there was only one decent player there and he was to my right so I didn't have to worry too much about how I acted and for the main part stayed out of his way. He final tabled a UKIPT last year so it was interesting to talk to him about that and it's likely I will bump into him in Dublin or Newcastle depending on when I set aside enough money for the buy in. As for the live poker itself it started a bit ropey as I was stuck about 150 playing 1,2 having tried to bluff a guy who played a baby flush very passively. At the time I thought he played it well to induce the bluff but it turned out that he was just a very passive player and didn't ever bet and people didn't give him action after that. Anyway, I clawed it back and ended up up 240, not bad for 4 hours 'work'. This was a cool experience and I'll return for sure next Wed as I'm meeting a friend in central London that day.

I feel this week has been balanced well, I've seen plenty of friends, been out, exercised and actually had a really good week outside of poker. I am glad I set these goals as I can easily and seamlessly move out from a horrible session of bad beats and coolers into doing something else without letting it get to me. Only once during the week did I feel like I was tilting which obviously was a sign to stop because when I'm not on my game I'm such a terrible player.

So, in terms of poker that is a week I'm quite glad to see the back of it. My EV (expected value) wasn't high, due to high proportion of big hands I ran into, and my profit was lower still. However, overall, I quite liked how it went. Poker ebbs and flows, but life is too short not to enjoy it in the meantime.

Finally, a big good luck to my friend Chauncey Monk who's playing the main event of the Pokerstars Caribbean Adventure as I write this.

Take care and good luck

bigstealer

2012 Goals

Happy New Year, I hope 2011 was kind to you.

Moving swiftly on, this post is being written by a hungover bigstealer trying to work out his goals for the year. Subsequently, this may not be the final edition of this but a few things spring to mind.

1. Take it seriously - I aim to put in at least 30-35 hours of online poker per week. There will be weeks where I do not attain this as I do plan on occasionally having time off with the prospect of specific events, holidays and festivals etc. Anyway, 2011 was a fairly good year volume wise, with just over 10,000 games played, but I was travelling for 3 months and my volume pre-September sucked (as I rarely played more than 8 tables before then) so I think I should attain 300k VPPs. 2011 brought $12k in rakeback with 235k VPPs so 300k VPPs would equate to around $20k from rakeback. So, 2012 - time to get serious.

2. Improve MTT volume - I did mention in the previous post that I may increase MTTs played but I've decided that whilst the focus will remain on Sit 'n' Gos there is simply too much money to be made in MTTs. I may well avoid the Sunday Majors because the variance of the big buy ins is ridiculous (currently my MTT top buy in is $162) so my focus will remain on the mid stakes MTTs during the week. However, regarding the  Sunday Majors, I could change my stance. If I have a repeat of 2011's income from MTTs(~$30k), I'll be happy but obviously I believe there is more to be made from that.

3. Play Live once a week - I think it is important to break up the grind where you can, but where I live (Fulham, London) there is the Empire Casino less than half an hour away on the Underground. To say the games/players here are bad is a gross understatement. I'm sure it isn't exclusive to London as when I've played live before (in LA and Vegas) it was like playing on a table of 8 Monk532s all at once...it was just that good. Anyway, I hope this will improve my live game too as this links in well to my 4th goal.

4. Play a UKIPT - I don't care which one specifically. I think it'd be a great experience but it would most likely be one towards the end of the year as I'll have set aside money for it. Having said that, I'd love to go to Dublin in May so that could be the specific goal but if not, Newcastle would be good fun too as I have friends who are up there. Obviously if I do well there it'd be fantastic for my reputation but it's not something I'm pinning my hopes on. Although the softness of the fields make it +EV for me to enter, the key is enjoying it there and playing my best. This will be one of the weeks where goal #1 will likely not be achievable.

5. Don't spew in the chatbox - sometimes it's incredibly hard to contain your frustrations at a table when things aren't going your way, but telling someone they're shit when they've made a mistake that you didn't profit from, is quite close to the most stupid thing a player can do. Added to that, I can't think of one poker player who enjoys listening/reading about how bad someone is running or specific hand histories about bad luck. So, whilst I've not been perfect in this particular part of poker, a lot of reputation in poker comes from being a decent bloke/girl, as well as a good player and whilst my game has its faults and is likely never to be perfect, good behaviour at the tables is something that doesn't require much effort to achieve. This isn't just a goal, but also (I hope) good reasoning that might encourage other players who read this and like to use the chatbox to pipe down a bit too. I don't mind talking and joking, but this links with goal #1 - if I'm going to take this seriously this should be part of it.

6. Balance - I stole this goal from bigbluffzinc, but I'm sure he won't mind. Poker can be stressful, frustrating, a grind etc but those times are grossly outweighed by the quality of life you can attain. Those regs who grind 12-14 hours a day every day(including weekends), in my opinion, really are not getting the most out of what poker offers you - the chance to make more than your fair share on fewer, more flexible hours, than in almost any other niche. So whilst I've mentioned improving volume, exercising around 5 times a week is very important to me for example, and balancing work and play is key. So, whilst obviously you want to make a decent living, happiness should be your primary goal...and for me a balanced life will achieve that.

Ok, 2012 has begun-the working week begins tomorrow. Take care and good luck.

bigstealer

Beginning of blogging.

Coming from the UK I'm not too familiar with the idea of blogging, so it may seem a bit bizarre that I'm starting. I'm making this almost like an online diary for myself as a point of reference to look back on when things are going well or vice versa to put the inevitable swings from poker itself in perspective as essentially it is a game and there is more to life, even if it is something that may affect my quality of living. Being successful in this game requires a level head and I think this will help that in both the peaks and troughs that the future holds.

So here it is, I'm 23 years old and I've been playing poker for the last 18 months. My specific niche is 6 max sit and gos although around half my earnings (pre-rakeback) have come from Multi-Table Tournaments so 2012 might see an increase in volume in these depending on how I choose to upgrade my setup. I do also play in 9 man sit and gos but that is only if the game is particularly good as I haven't the expertise as most of the regs who specialize in them plus the ICM factors differ significantly from the 6 player version and when playing up to 14 tables minimalizing confusion between 6 and 9 man games can only improve hourly rate. I began playing seriously around March/April 2010 but wouldn't have considered it as a realistic way of making a living until just after I came back from travelling in June/July of this year.

To consider myself a pro is a weird thought but something that I should probably get used to but I will make investments outside of poker (I'm interested in buying shares in good spots). For the main part, however, poker is the way I intend to earn a living for the next couple of years at least.

I can't imagine too much attention will be paid to this, but I feel it's as much for me as anyone else. So for those who read this (and if you have I assume you've played me) take care and good luck at the tables. I'll blog again in the New Year to post my 2012 goals.

bigstealer